Iran war prediction

[Marku2.0]

If you haven't noticed, I'm against this war. It will solve nothing. I voted for Trump 3 times. I support our troops. I'm just done putting Israel first. I voted for America/USA FIRST! I voted for no new wars. I discussed my stance at lunch today with Sgrem and C Hook. They know I think different and they push back, like I want anyone to do. I'm open to new info or ideas at anytime.

Anywho, here's how I see this going down.

The Ayatollah Khamenei posted last week he will not hide from the attack. He wanted to be Martyred. So did a bunch of his cabinet. Their desires came true.

Iran responded with their own barrage of missiles and drones. Which our defense systems slapped most out of the sky. At a cost of at least 2 (min) defensive missiles per Iranian projectile. Iran can't stop our stealth attacks, and they don't seem to care. Their plan is of attrition. If and when, they can force the use of all, or most of the joint defensive platforms. That's when Iran will send the farm to Israel. I don't see any other plan Iran can or could do to Israel.

Iran sunk their own oil tanker. They successfully stopped the flow of oil through that Straight. No one will insure those vessels atm. Not to mention the war happening.

Iran told Trump today to F off with his latest Peace Talks. If you can't see the David vs Goliath play Iran is doing, well... Iran sent missiles to every country which is supporting the USA with our bases. Just to show the world they can. Iran is in this for the long haul. We're not, that's a huge problem. 4 weeks!

Iran isn't playing war the way we expected. Our leaders figured Iran would have a new regime, or at least some new folks to discuss Peace. BiBi sold that BS to Trump and our elected house members. The Genie is out of the bottle. There's no take backs from either side.

The only way we'll win this war. Is a lot of good old fashioned carpet bombing. As in level the entire place. If not, BiBI will be back in Congress telling us Iran has only 6 days, 6 weeks, 6 months, 6 years, 6 decades before their nuke is deployable. BiBi has been saying this since the frigging 90's! We were told we wiped out their nuke program last year.

This is why I say Iran gets nuked by Israel.

There's more to it. But here's the starting point in my head.

[dwilliams35]

The one thing that may very well change is an uprising by the Iranian people now that their government is weakened: they've shown a propensity and desire to do just that, and were just getting kilt and stuff for trying it in recent months.. Will the new regime be really significantly better than the last? Doubtful: we had decided we needed to get rid of the last westernized version, too.. It'll certainly change, it's a crapshoot whether it'll be better or not. I'd put some money on it being better, though: just like venezuela, the Trump Wars seem to be a bit more in tune with "hearts and minds of the people" than pretty much any war we've been in in my lifetime.. This, and Venezuela, is the first time in my lifetime where we actually may be seen as liberators rather than evil occupiers.

[WhiteBassFisher]

Your last sentence is basic but true.

[gds]

I hope that they get a better govt., but whatever they get, I bet that they're more careful.

[SmithRanchZ]

Rubio suggested today, we struck Iran because Isreal was going to attack Iran, and if we did not go on the offensive, we would have lost more people as Iran retaliated.

Consider that for a moment. Isreal calling the shots, not us. I would think it would be the reverse. Or, it should be.

Rubio also suggested we only make a handful of interceptors each month. "Six or seven" a month. So, we are potentially burning thru years and years worth of supplies/stockpiles. After what we have seen in Ukraine, I would think we would be building six or seven hundred a month. Or perhaps, should be.

In 2003, roughly 50% of Iraqis saw the US as liberators. That sentiment was short lived as the domestic situation deteriorated.

[WhiteBassFisher]

Mark, I hope you are wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith right now. Of course, the MSM is having a field day with it.

[Stalkin Spots]

If you haven't noticed, I'm against this war. It will solve nothing. I voted for Trump 3 times. I support our troops. I'm just done putting Israel first. I voted for America/USA FIRST! I voted for no new wars. I discussed my stance at lunch today with Sgrem and C Hook. They know I think different and they push back, like I want anyone to do. I'm open to new info or ideas at anytime.
We are the Great Satan. They have been shouting Death to America for almost 50 years, should we wait and see if they actually do something first, other than through their beat down proxies, or should we pimp slap them when the opportunity arose for the western loving citizens to take their country back with a little help from the good ole US of A.

Anywho, here's how I see this going down.

The Ayatollah Khamenei posted last week he will not hide from the attack. He wanted to be Martyred. So did a bunch of his cabinet. Their desires came true.
Wasn’t he in a bunker in an undisclosed location that even those closest to him were blindfolded when driven to the location? Didn’t they all meet at that location because they were rightly concerned that all communications were being intercepted?

Iran responded with their own barrage of missiles and drones. Which our defense systems slapped most out of the sky. At a cost of at least 2 (min) defensive missiles per Iranian projectile. Iran can't stop our stealth attacks, and they don't seem to care. Their plan is of attrition. If and when, they can force the use of all, or most of the joint defensive platforms. That's when Iran will send the farm to Israel. I don't see any other plan Iran can or could do to Israel.
They are also being less than strategic in the firing of their missiles. Kinda all over the place hitting whatever they end up hitting. Their plan of attrition is futile. Our goal is to take out the mobile missile launchers. That have far fewer launchers than they do missiles and no means to otherwise fire said missiles.

Iran sunk their own oil tanker. They successfully stopped the flow of oil through that Straight. No one will insure those vessels atm. Not to mention the war happening.

Iran told Trump today to F off with his latest Peace Talks. If you can't see the David vs Goliath play Iran is doing, well... Iran sent missiles to every country which is supporting the USA with our bases. Just to show the world they can. Iran is in this for the long haul. We're not, that's a huge problem. 4 weeks!
Of course they told us to eff off, we hit the shit out of them 3 days ago. I’m not sure who on Goliath’s team is going to step up after we took out much of their leadership. Iran’s ability to launch missles greatly diminishes when they no longer have platforms from which to launch them. Every launch reveals a target location to sate and drones overhead. It likely won’t be a long haul after their navy and launchers are decimated.

Iran isn't playing war the way we expected. Our leaders figured Iran would have a new regime, or at least some new folks to discuss Peace. BiBi sold that BS to Trump and our elected house members. The Genie is out of the bottle. There's no take backs from either side.
How exactly are they playing war? They seem frantic to respond to me without much thought into where they are actually hitting.

The only way we'll win this war. Is a lot of good old fashioned carpet bombing. As in level the entire place. If not, BiBI will be back in Congress telling us Iran has only 6 days, 6 weeks, 6 months, 6 years, 6 decades before their nuke is deployable. BiBi has been saying this since the frigging 90's! We were told we wiped out their nuke program last year.
We don’t need to carpet bomb when we have precise strategic targets. If I remember correctly from this morning’s briefing,Hegseth and General Cain stated we hit more than 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours. There is no way we are not seriously undermining their capabilities.

This is why I say Iran gets nuked by Israel.

There's more to it. But here's the starting point in my head.

See responses in RED.

[Mocity31]

Northrop Gruman makes about 300 missiles/yr for US military. General Dynamics makes 50,000 explosive projectiles/month for US military.
Apparently the Strait of Hormotz is NOT an issue as Oil traded up 10% early this morning and sold off during the day and ended down -0.5% (half a percent)

[Mocity31]

Wars are started for basically 3 reasons. #1. Religion #2. Natural resources. #3. Land or borders. When a country seeking nuclear weapons blatenlty and repeatedly says "death to America and death to Isreal", said countries absolutely have to defend themselves! Not give them pallets of cash to fund their nuclear ambitions.
There are basically 2 sects of Islam. Sunni (90%) and Shia (10%) aprox numbers. Most Shia live in Iran. They are the more hard core. They believe in their own version of "end times". They believe they are in end times now! That this showdown will usher in the Mahdi, their version of a Messiah, and he will march to Damascus and meet Jesus, who will be subservient to the Mahdi and meet thhe Dajjal, their version of their Antichrist and a great battle will insue. They believe Donald Trump is the Dajjal!
That is the mentality of who you're dealing with when it comes to diplomacy.
Theocracy's don't work for anyone

[Matt]

Some just said religion isn't an excuse for wars. These people pray and fast and want you dead. This isn't non denominational church types and take the mowdy out after mass people. They will cut your head off if they could.

[PK]

This 100%

[Tsip]

This isn't a NEW war Trump has started. This is finally a President that has the balls to END a war that's been waged against US and Israel since 1979. I hope he succeeds like in previous endeavors and up next: Cuba. Trump's legacy isn't going to be what he tried to do for four years, it's going to be how he reshaped global politics for the next 50 years. I pray he succeeds. We should have fkd them up after the Beirut Marine barracks bombing. Flaccid response back then from politicians, not leaders.

[KWeber]

read a blurb where IDF is going after leaders and US is concentrating on military equip...
also their navy is now scrap

[Mocity31]

Iranian Navy is scrap- hence the price of Oil at the close today.

[Mocity31]

US Central Comm announced Iran's Gulf of Oman navy fleet is completely wiped out. Zero ships remain

[Marku2.0]

Part 2: Ground war in Iran or Adios Petro $$$:- (Or, This will never happen because I'm wrong)

Iran survives the "4 week" bombing campaign without surrendering. This war has also put our regional OPEC partners/Petro $ traders in the middle of our problem. With their petrochemical facilities already jacked up beyond a duct tape and twine repair. What are they to do? Or do they shut down operations entirely. And become neutral players based on shutdown truces with Iran?

When the ships aren't pushing their O&G around the world. Who's covering those losses? Who's paying to rebuild their already damaged infrastructure?

Does this war rewrite the Petro $$ / OPEC alliance? I don't see how it can't change things dramatically. Especially after 3 or 4 months of no O&G $$ flowing.

How do we stop the random missile and drone attacks on the region? That's what comes next, when bombing doesn't stop Iran's attacks. There's no way Israel or us are putting troops on the ground. Our regional partners will demand we stop Iran. That's how Iran keeps the upper hand. They can make cheap drones in caves if needed.

When do Russia or China step in? They're not going to let this go down without their cut. Tell me how this plays out differently? Do y'all really think Iran will surrender? If so, which troops get to go in and make sure Iran is in, and stays in compliance?

I'm just telling y'all the only real life outcome I see from this. Iran gets nuked.

Edit: I didn't post this earlier. I ate dinner and saw Rubio's interview. He's a badass. He answers questions. He basically said we're putting troops on the ground. That's fkn crazy I didn't think we'd go this far. How do you go about informing 90 million folks there's a new sheriff in town? How many US troops does this take? Does the next Dem admin pull a FJB Afgan withdrawal? I still can't believe it's an option.

[copanoson]

I agree that the US shouldn’t be involved. The whole situation feels reactionary rather than strategic, and our elected leaders are sending mixed signals about the purpose and goals. Yes, the ayatollah is a harmful figure, but so are the hundreds of officials who hold the power to choose his successor and shape the council. When a government is weakened, it’s rarely replaced by better actors.

We’ll have to see where this conflict stands in the next 2–3 months, and then what Iran’s position looks like in 3–5 years. In the short term, if gas prices and related costs start rising, and if US casualties increase, public opinion will shift quickly. But if this ends up being a single paragraph in future history books, most people won’t think twice about it.

In the long term, nothing meaningful is likely to change inside Iran. There are just as many Iranians calling for their country to avenge the deaths of their leaders.

[Matt]

#2 option. Ground forces to secure while US installs new gov or let people dip fingers in ink . Seen this movie before. Hopefully not!

[Unknownstrohsfan]

Trump has repeatedly said that all of this is to help the Iranian people help themselves to get rid of the fundamentalist oppressors that that his driven this country backwards in time. I believe him. There is enough oil in their country, that they likely won't retreat to Afghanistan's time period, but that is the Shiite way, people in caves are easy to control. While there are still some people in country, who remember, and others who are taught the history, of a once thriving economy and community, many of them left or were killed in '80s. I believe that is the strategy, there is a real opposition network in place, but history shows that strategy is a long shot. Thugs don't want to lose the power they wield.

[copanoson]

believing that military escalation will empower ordinary Iranians is a gamble with a long track record of failing. Authoritarian regimes don’t fall because outside powers weaken them; they fall when internal political, economic, and social pressures reach a breaking point. And external intervention often delays that moment rather than accelerates it.

[luckystrike]

isn't that the same thing Bush said about Iraq. We would be liberators and they would be dancing in the streets. Well today there are 6 or 7 different Iraqi splinter groups lobbing missals and drones at our military bases there 20 years and God knows how many trillions later.

[CSN]

Interesting take. Chase Hughes is a psyops analyst.

[Unknownstrohsfan]

Totally accurate, Only problem is, that the only time we made this strategy work was in Nazi Germany, and that was after we eviscerated the German empire, and nuked their Japanese allies, and we still had to fight the Russians tooth and nail in a struggle that lasted for decades to make it stick. Are we gonna do that for a region that is not unique in their chant for death to America?

[Da Reel Daddy]

This isn't a NEW war Trump has started. This is finally a President that has the balls to END a war that's been waged against US and Israel since 1979. I hope he succeeds like in previous endeavors and up next: Cuba. Trump's legacy isn't going to be what he tried to do for four years, it's going to be how he reshaped global politics for the next 50 years. I pray he succeeds. We should have fkd them up after the Beirut Marine barracks bombing. Flaccid response back then from politicians, not leaders.

Yup!

[Trouthunter]

If Carter wouldn't have been such a female organ we wouldn't be doing what we are doing now. I fully support the destruction of Iran and our President.

[KWeber]

who do you believe?
Trump: US Stockpiles Ready to 'Win Big' Despite Biden's Moves | Newsmax.com
some say we're running short of defensive assets..

[copanoson]

Iran is not leaderless...they activated its constitutional continuity mechanisms, forming a three-member interim leadership council to maintain command and governance. Their military is coordinating strikes across the Gulf, striking targets in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. Recently they have targeted U.S. and Israeli assets across multiple countries, showing synchronized command across theaters.

These are not the actions of a leaderless country and/or military.

[Djwag94]

IMO, you don’t have to look any further than Irans revolutionary guard leaders to find who’s directing their military action.

[2Ws]

Supposedly 88 were sent to their waiting virgins